A surge in the EURUSD exchange rate will have data ahead from Europe and the US to test its resolve.
EURUSD – Daily Chart
The price of the EURUSD has surged above the 1.06 level after setting a base ahead of 1.02. The next target on the weekly level is at 1.12.
European retail sales will arrive at 6pm HKT today with markets expecting 1.9% growth. That will lead into US jobless claims data overnight and a press conference from the European central bank.
Volume can be expected again after the US non-farm payrolls data where analysts expect to see a reading of 160k up from 143k last month. The number will be the first test of Donald Trump’s Federal jobs cuts as they filter across the next couple of releases.
The reduction in jobs and the new tariffs on the likes of Canada and Mexico have led to money leaving the United States over recession fears. Trump has talked of concessions and reduced tariffs but some short-covering has hit the euro and could add to recent gains if the data is suitable.
The dollar also weakened after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that they are seeking to bring interest rates “down,” according to Reuters. His comments hurt the US dollar and traders have raised Federal Reserve dovish bets after some weaker economic data from the US. The expectation for the Fed to reduce interest rates in June has increased to 87% from 69% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to communicate clearly where rates will go for the rest of the year, with the central bank set to cut rates again late on Thursday. Another move would mark six cuts and take rates down to 2.5% in the eurozone.
