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英國央行維持利率不變後,英鎊兌美元匯率上漲

總結

英國央行將利率穩定在5%後,英鎊兌美元上漲,政策制定者對通膨發出警告,而市場預計未來幾個月可能會降息。

在英國央行將利率穩定在5%之後,英鎊兌美元匯率週四上漲。

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

英鎊兌美元-日線圖

英國央行將關鍵利率維持在5%不變,原因是央行貨幣政策委員會內部對通膨的持續擔憂。佔英國經濟80%左右的重要服務業價格上漲。週三公佈的數據顯示,8月英國整體通膨率維持在2.2%的年化水平,仍高於央行的目標。

英國央行最近一次會議的紀錄顯示,9名委員中有8人投票支持維持利率不變,只有1人支持降息25個基點。

行長貝利表示,「經濟的發展與我們的預期大致一致。如果這種情況持續下去,我們應該能夠隨著時間的推移逐步降低利率。「但保持低通膨至關重要,因此我們需要小心,不要削減得太快或太多。 」

市場普遍預計,英國央行將在11月的下次會議再次降低借貸成本。 10月30日,英國新政府將公佈預算。工黨政府表示,他們需要填補220億英鎊(290億美元)的公共財政漏洞,並表示可能需要提高稅收和減少支出。這可能會給英國經濟的近期前景帶來壓力,並給通膨帶來下行壓力。

Aberdeen的副首席經濟學家Luke Bartholomew表示,英國央行“將需要在下一次預測中納入任何財政變化,這可能為在適當時候更迅速地降息提供基礎。”

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