差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

聯準會降息押注下,金價觸及歷史高點後下跌

黃金價格在周三觸及歷史新高後下跌。

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

黃金-日線圖

週三,黃金在觸及2,480美元附近的歷史新高後,下跌了0.46%。之前的高點2450美元是初步的支撐位。

金價在周三再創新高後走低,因交易員加大了對聯準會降息的押注。

聯準會理事沃勒週三表示,經濟正接近聯準會可以降低借貸成本的水平。然而,他表示,他希望看到「更多的證據」表明通膨正在下降。

沃勒和其他一些官員都表示,他們離降息更近了一步。然而,包括聯準會主席鮑威爾在內的大多數人都沒有給出具體的時間表。根據芝加哥商品交易所聯準會觀察工具的數據,市場目前認為美國9月降息的可能性為98%。

受各國央行大舉購買黃金、中國消費者健康狀況強勁以及地緣政治緊張局勢引發的避險資產需求的支撐,金價今年已上漲近20%。在更看漲的環境下,動能交易商正重新成為金價的關鍵推手。

High Ridge Futures的David Meger表示,”市場預期聯準會離降息越來越近,而收益率繼續在預期中緩慢走低,再加上美元走軟,是金價走勢背後的主要支撐因素。”

週四,歐洲央行將召開利率會議,這可能會推動美元和黃金走高。

利率市場目前反映出,2024年將降息48個基點,距離總共兩次降息25個基點只有一步之遙。考慮到歐洲央行正在調整季度預期,10月第三次降息的可能性不大。管理委員會成員Klaas Knot指出,他早先傾向於堅持季度降息決定,以查看最新的經濟預測。由於通膨數據仍居高不下,衰退風險仍較低,在一次會議上降息50個基點的可能性同樣不大。

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