差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

高盛表示,油價上漲可能不會影響利率

投資銀行高盛表示,不認為聯準會基於高油價改變政策。

USOIL: Daily Chart

USOIL日圖

油價上周有所下跌,但仍高於每桶90美元的水準。

據高盛稱,油價上漲可能加劇經濟衰退的威脅,可能在未來兩季拖累消費成長0.5個百分點,但這是一個可控的逆風。

儘管預計消費將放緩至年底,但高盛分析師Spencer Hill認為,油價上漲不太可能導致消費者支出或經濟成長下滑的原因有三。

他補充說,三個原因中的最後一個將是聯準會的關鍵。 「鮑威爾主席在9月的新聞發布會上提醒我們,聯準會往往不會對能源價格衝擊做出反應,」他在一份研究報告中表示。

鮑威爾在會議期間表示,能源價格上漲“意義重大”,“這取決於能源價格高企的持續程度”。 他補充說,“能源價格對經濟走勢沒有太大的指示作用。”

“我們不認為最近的油價走勢會解除通膨預期的錨定,從而迫使政府做出政策回應。”

由於漲價幅度小,分析師稱,能源產業資本支出增加和電價下降應能部分抵銷對經濟成長的影響,而電價上漲不會導緻聯準會進一步收緊政策。

截至7月,能源僅佔消費的4.0%,汽油佔2.3%。 儘管自6月以來原油價格上漲了20美元,但這還不到2008年和2022年上半年漲幅的一半。 這家投資銀行也認為,汽油價格的大部分漲幅已經發生。

經濟將進一步成長,因為明年的資本支出增幅低於通常的0.1個百分點,而且經季節性調整後的電價下降1%也將在此期間提振消費者。

法國外貿銀行投資組合策略師Jack Janasiewicz認為,油價更多的是逆風因素。

他在評論中說,油價迅速升至每桶100美元可能會給風險資產帶來麻煩,原油價格是需要密切關注的主要經濟風險之一。

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