差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐央行降息後,預期聯準會將降息,油價上漲

在歐洲央行下調利率後,原油價格週四上漲2%,希望聯準會也會下調利率。歐佩克+部長們向投資者保證,最新的石油產量協議可能會根據市場變化而變化。

WTI 4 Hour chart

布蘭特原油期貨收漲1.46美元,至每桶79.87美元,漲幅1.86%。美國西德州中質原油期貨收漲1.48美元,至75.55美元,漲幅2%。

週四,歐洲央行進行了自2019年以來的首次降息,稱在應對通膨方面取得了進展,但警告稱,戰鬥遠未結束。

丹麥央行將基準利率下調了25個基點,至3.35%。

美國分析師認為,歐洲降息可能是聯準會降息的先兆。

較低的燃料成本和疫情後供應障礙的緩解,幫助將20個歐元使用國家的通膨率從2022年底的10%降至2.6%。

與幾週前相比,投資人現在對通膨已經回落到足以讓歐洲央行啟動一個重大寬鬆週期的程度缺乏信心。在美國,根據路透社5月31日至6月5日的調查,經濟學家預測聯準會將在9月降息。

Again Capital合夥人John Kilduff表示:「如今,歐洲央行的降息起到了幫助作用,並讓人認為,聯準會最終將效仿美國的做法,這是有利的,但兩家央行都是在經濟放緩的情況下降息的,而經濟放緩未必會支撐石油需求。

上週,美國首次申請失業救濟的人數上升。不過,美國勞工部表示,第一季單位勞動成本增幅低於此前。

儘管這表明勞動力市場正在降溫,但不太可能促使聯準會開始降息。

同時,貿易公司托克的首席經濟學家Saad Rahim表示,歐佩克+決定逐步取消部分減產,再加上固體燃料供應,導致油價下跌。

OPEC+及其盟友上週日同意將大部分減產延長至2025年。然而,他們為八個成員的自願削減留出了空間,以逐步解除。

週四,沙烏地阿拉伯能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子表示,如果歐佩克認為市場不夠強勁,它可能會暫停或逆轉產量成長。

俄羅斯副總理亞歷山大·諾瓦克表示,如果有必要,歐佩克可能會調整協議,並補充說,會後價格下跌是由對協議的誤解和「投機因素」造成的。

「石油市場對OPEC+會議的溫和負面結果反應過度。最近需求指標肯定有所疲軟,但並沒有急劇下滑。」巴克萊分析師Amarpreet Singh在報告中寫道。

另根據英國保全公司Ambrey報道,一艘商船週四在也門港口城市Mokha以西約19海裡處的紅海附近發生爆炸。

Ambrey在一份報告中說,這艘船符合也門胡塞武裝分子的目標。幾個月來,激進分子襲擊了以色列沿海的船隻,聲援在加薩與以色列作戰的巴勒斯坦人。

這艘船當時正從歐洲前往阿拉伯聯合大公國的途中。

普萊斯期貨集團分析師Phil Flynn表示:「這給本已緊張的市場增加了更多風險。」「如果結果是一艘油輪,這可能會增加風險,」他補充說。

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