EUR/USD
The EURUSD is one of the most famous and traded CFD products globally due to its liquidity and tight spreads.
However, it is one of the most volatile pairs in the FX market. Therefore, investors closely study the latest fundamental events and news that affect its movement. They also apply technical analysis using live charts to understand the pair’s behaviour before placing trades, aiming to make capital gains.
After reading this guide:
- You will better understand the EURUSD price
- Understand how the pair’s exchange rate fluctuates daily
- Conduct technical analysis of the pair and understand how analysts create price forecasts
- Get educational tips on trading the pair, including the best trading hours
- Finally, you will better understand how to use historical data to trade the pair
- Get answers to the most frequently asked questions about the EURUSD
EUR USD Live Chart
The EUR/USD currency pair refers to the Euro against the U.S. dollar. The value of the Euro against the dollar is quoted as 1 Euro x U.S. dollars. The average exchange rate for the EUR/USD pair is approximately 1.15 dollars to buy 1 Euro.
EURUSD is the most widely traded currency pair because the Eurozone and the United States are two of the largest and most influential economies globally. Although the Euro is used across most European countries, it’s also important to note the significant influence of the central banks of these two major economies, as they have the power to significantly impact other foreign currencies.
The price chart below represents the EURUSD exchange rate live chart.
EUR USD Forecast
The EUR/USD forecast predicts the future direction in which the currency pair may trade. Such forecasts answer the question, ‘Where is EUR/USD going?’ Traders use these forecasts to place trades in the most probable future direction.
For example, the EUR/USD dropped below a significant level after the European Central Bank (ECB) released a monetary policy statement released in late October 2021. This was because the ECB decided to leave monetary policy unchanged despite a significant jump in inflation. As a result, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure increased notably month over month.
Concerns about transitory inflation spikes remain, and the long-term forecast for the EUR/USD indicates that the currency pair may stay within a specific trading range unless it breaks a critical handle, which could lead to a sharp selloff.
Other factors affecting the highly liquid FX pair include global issues like microchip supply chain disruptions, which impact multiple economic indicators and put pressure on the Euro. Therefore, the long-term forecast for EUR/USD remains vulnerable. Investor sentiment also shows more short positions than long ones, but the overall outlook is mixed.
Traders are also pricing in upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and adjusting their positions with expectations of a hawkish tone toward tapering asset purchases. As a result, the USD has been climbing higher, and retail sales from Euro-Zone countries have also pressured the Euro, limiting its gains.
Overall, the EUR/USD forecast remains cautious, especially given the thin trading volumes ahead of significant central bank meetings.
What Are the Main Factors That Influence the EURUSD Exchange Rate
- Single currency strength or weakness
- The EUR/USD exchange rate can increase or decrease according to the Euro’s and US dollar’s strength or weakness.
- Central bank monetary policy changes
- A move by either of the two central banks to change interest rates or a general intervention to strengthen their base currencies would lead to the decline of the opposing currency. For example, if the US Federal Reserve Bank intervenes by raising interest rates to make the dollar stronger, investors will notice a decline in the EUR/USD rate.
- Fundamental News
- Geopolitics, economic crisis, economic and natural disasters, or inflation can significantly impact currencies.
EUR USD Technical Analysis
At the time of writing (28 October 2021), the EURUSD technical analysis came ahead of the month’s European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting.
EUR/USD S&R Levels
| Date | 28 October 2021 | 20 January 2024 |
| Support levels | 1.157, 1.15, 1.1544 | 1.04479, 1.072, 1.08443 |
| Resistance levels | 1.1663, 1.1695, 1.18 | 1.1139, 1.1139, 1.1149 |
Pullback Strategy
Based on the EUR/USD’s extensive momentum, traders like to use the pullback strategy to buy and sell the pair. The pullback strategy takes advantage of opportunities within its optimized trend. However, traders could incur losses if the price swings to a reversal (longer-term).
Before an uptrend resumes, there will often be a pullback, which traders can use to open a position, assuming that the asset will resume its uptrend. Pullbacks are usually applied to short term price declines in an uptrend.
Using different indicators such as the moving average or Fibonacci retracements, key pivot points and critical levels can be identified to help initiate a successful trade. Traders need to pay attention not to mistake reversals for pullbacks. The difference is that reversals are more long term and can be triggered by weaker than expected economic indicators, among other fundamental news.
Breakout Strategy
This is a simple buy the breakout and sell the breakdown strategy when a breakout happens outside a defined trading range or support and resistance levels. This is one of the most noticeable movements on a price chart because the price pattern will look different on a diagonal or horizontal level. In other words, it is when the price finally breaks critical support or resistance level after a few attempts. Therefore, the best moment to take advantage of a breakout strategy is to buy during the breakout. Depending on your position, you should place your stop loss above or below the breakout candle.
Scalping
Scalping is one of the most straightforward strategies and is very suitable for beginners and advanced traders. Using indicators such as the RSI or Bollinger bands will give you buy and sell signals. You will also see visible signs that the direction is changing as the price heads towards the opposite direction.
To critically analyze any chart, you need to explore a deep dive into research and analyst expectations. There are many valuable resources to identify the trend direction of an asset, other than reading the materials found online. Using different technical indicators will also guide you to understand where the market is heading, as at least you will have an idea.
EUR USD Historical Data
| EUR USD – Historical Annual Data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Average Closing Price | Year Open | Year High | Year Low | Year Close | Annual % Change |
| 2023 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 1.98% |
| 2022 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 1.07 | -5.66% |
| 2021 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.14 | -6.92% |
| 2020 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 1.22 | 8.86% |
| 2019 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 1.12 | -2.26% |
| 2018 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.15 | -4.36% |
| 2017 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.04 | 1.20 | 14.15% |
| 2016 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.05 | -3.18% |
| 2015 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.09 | -10.21% |
| 2014 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.21 | 1.21 | -12.02% |
| 2013 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.28 | 1.38 | 4.26% |
| 2012 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.21 | 1.32 | 1.92% |
| 2011 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 1.29 | 1.29 | -3.20% |
| 2010 | 1.33 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.19 | 1.34 | -6.66% |
| 2009 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.51 | 1.25 | 1.43 | 2.47% |
| 2008 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.60 | 1.25 | 1.40 | -4.19% |
| 2007 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.29 | 1.46 | 10.52% |
| 2006 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.18 | 1.32 | 11.43% |
| 2005 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.17 | 1.18 | -12.59% |
| 2004 | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.36 | 7.61% |
| 2003 | 1.13 | 1.04 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 1.26 | 20.09% |
| 2002 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.05 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 17.86% |
| 2001 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.89 | -5.56% |
| 2000 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.83 | 0.94 | -6.60% |
To accurately identify the price direction of any financial instrument, studying the historical patterns of the asset is essential. In this section, we will briefly review the history of EUR/USD prices to establish a future EUR USD forecast and current trends. The likelihood of this trend following a narrow range is expected to continue its downtrend and trade below the 1.16 level.
Historical charts are extremely valuable in technical analysis because financial instruments and commodities tend to mimic patterns seen through historical price action. However, the reliability of historical data may vary when trading the EUR/USD due to ever-changing financial news. Nevertheless, trends are measurable, giving an idea of where markets could be heading. Traders use historical patterns to identify the best entry and exit positions.
The more familiar you become with past price patterns, the better you will be at spotting them as they occur again. Historical price patterns affect current price action, showing you areas where breakouts happened in the past and indicating whether markets are genuinely bullish or bearish. Making trading decisions can be challenging, and your psychological state plays a massive role in risk management. Therefore, understanding historical patterns can boost your confidence and provide a starting point.
According to the Euro/Dollar exchange rate historical chart, the EUR/USD average closing prices were:
- 1.12 in 2019
- 1.14 in 2020
- 1.19 in 2021
EUR USD Trading Hours
The Forex market operates 24 hours a day in all different time zones because it operates based on the different times at which many financial markets open worldwide. The forex markets close over the weekends on Saturdays & Sundays.
The busiest time in the Forex markets based on volume is between the New York and London markets.
The forex market has three main sessions, the Asian, European and US sessions. These sessions allow you to trade whenever and wherever you are.
The Asian, European, and American sessions are based on the Tokyo, London, and New York time zones.
New York – is between 01:00 pm to 10:00 pm GMT
London – is between 8:00 am to 5:00 pm GMT
Tokyo – is between 00:00 am to 9:00 am GMT
The best time to trade the EUR/USD is when news releases come out, particularly during the U.S. Session or when economic indicators are due, especially when a major central bank decision is anticipated. You will find that volatility increases during these hours.
How To Trade Or Invest EURUSD Like a Pro
3 simple steps
You can trade the financial markets the way you want to. There are various ways to trade the markets through ATFX, each with its advantages. Whatever your preference, we’ve got you covered. You can start with a demo account to minimize your risks if you are a beginner, or you can start directly with a live account by following the steps below;
But first, you have to get familiar with the forex markets and trading: Take online courses that will deepen your knowledge of forex trading and understand the fundamental triggers of the market.
Register for an account
Register Live Account
Complete the Live Trading Account application form & send all your e-KYC requirements.
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Start Trading
Start Trading & Fund Your Account. Go to your dashboard and fund your account to start trading online on our platforms.
ATFX offers several online trading services, spread betting (UK and Ireland clients only) and CFD trading. These are some of the most popular ways to trade instruments like forex, equity indices, commodities and shares.
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FAQ
The sterling, 1 pound equals 1.18 Euro, and 1 Euro is 0.85 sterling.
The GBP/USD currency pair, otherwise known as 1 British Pound Sterling per X number of US Dollars, is the best example in terms of correlation. Whenever the EUR/USD trades upwards, GBP/USD moves in the same direction. When the correlation equals negative 1, the common observation is that two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time.
The Euro is currently in a downtrend, and the technical indicators show that the currency pair will stay in the 1.16 trading range till the end of this quarter unless it breaks the 1.15 handle where it could witness a sharp selloff.
For more details, refer to the EUR USD Forecast section above.
The GBP/USD is highly correlated with the EUR/USD; usually, you’ll find similar movements in both currency pairs.
The forex market is open 24 hours within different time zones, except on weekends.
Kindly refer to the Support and Resistance pivot points to identify signals in the technical analysis section.
The Euro is currently following a downtrend. Technical indicators designate that the currency pair will stay in the 1.16 trading range until the end of this quarter unless it breaks the 1.15 handle, where it could witness a sharp selloff.
For more details, refer to the EUR USD Forecast section
In 2008, The EUR/USD reached an all-time high of 1.6038.
You can use a EUR USD lot size calculator or ultimately the below formula;
Account Risk / (Trade Risk in pips x Pip Value) = Position size in lots
The EUR CoT stands for the commitment of traders’ reports, and it’s usually used to help the public understand market dynamics. So, for example, when the COT index rises, investors tend to be more bullish about the Euro.
Both assets have a negative correlation to the U.S. Dollar.
To calculate the value of a pip, you should divide 1/100 by the exchange rate.
For the EUR/USD: One pip is 1/100 divided by 1.160
The forex market is open 24 hours within different time zones, except on weekends.
The best time to trade EUR/USD is when news releases come out or when economic indicators come out and when a major central bank decision is anticipated. You will find volatility increases during these hours. The busiest time zone is between New York and London by volume.
