差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

現貨白銀在20美元遭拒後何去何從?

過去兩週,白銀價格一直在每盎司20美元的水平被拒絕,週四出現了投資者拋售白銀的情況。

自9月初以來,貴金屬價格一直在上漲,但美國通脹損害了貴金屬和股市的前景。

xagusd chart

現貨白銀日圖

現貨白銀現在交易在19美元之上,但可能會進一步回落到18.50美元。支撐在18.50-19美元可能是白銀的買入機會。

瑞士信貸曾對貴金屬頂部發出警告,並對技術水平提出了自己的觀點:

“白銀已經回到了2020/21年度整個上行走勢的關鍵61.8%回檔位支撐位18.65/15美元之上。然而,該貨幣對仍維持在21.39美元下方的一個大頂部,因此,從技術分析角度來看,預計該貨幣對將從這裡進一步下行至15.56美元的支撐位。下一個阻力位見於20.87美元,仍需突破21.39美元才能觸及頂部。”

人們對最大的白銀ETF SLV有很大的做空興趣。散戶和機構投資者紛紛押注白銀價格在未來幾個月走低,12%的份額股被賣空。如果價格繼續下跌,這些頭寸可能是有利可圖的,但如果頭寸錯了,也可能導致軋空頭。

對白銀而言,另一個不利因素是黃金/白銀比率超賣,這可能是做空興趣的一個原因。

自美聯儲今年3月開始實施激進的利率政策以來,銀價一直走勢艱難。隨著黃金結束大規模刺激措施的趨勢,轉向限制性貨幣政策立場,黃金拖累了金屬資產走低。

對於白銀來說,情況更糟,因為它是一種工業金屬。由於許多發達國家對經濟衰退的擔憂,以及中國經濟增長放緩,對白銀的需求預計將繼續疲軟。投資者應該在未來幾個月關注黃金,因為利率見頂和全球經濟復甦可能推高黃金價格。

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